Transforming land use: The role of alternative proteins in advancing climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation

Our nation has ambitious land conservation targets and climate goals that require reconnecting and restoring broad swaths of the American landscape. We can make significant progress in achieving these conservation goals by diversifying American protein sources to include land-efficient alternative proteins, specifically, plant-based, fermentation-derived, and cultivated proteins, while reducing the proportion of protein derived from land-intensive, animal-based foods. This study quantifies the biodiversity and carbon sequestration opportunities of restoring U.S. croplands that would no longer be required to produce food for the American population following a 50 percent shift from animal protein toward alternative proteins. Analysis was conducted using GIS data layers to compare current feed, alfalfa, hay, haylage, and cropland pasture lands to historical ecosystems and peatlands. We demonstrate the amount and type of historical ecosystems that could be restored, prioritizing threatened ecosystems. Additionally, we calculate the carbon sequestration potential by optimizing for restoration in ecosystems with the highest carbon sequestration rates. 

A 50 percent shift toward alternative proteins requires 47.3 million fewer acres of cropland (13.4 million acres of feed crop and 34 million acres of forage) to produce the same amount of protein. This shift toward alternative proteins would enable restoration of cropland acreage in 139, or 64 percent, of the 216 U.S. ecosystems that are currently threatened. Under a carbon strategy that prioritizes the restoration of ecosystems with the highest sequestration potential, a shift toward alternative proteins would enable the sequestration of 177.8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent every year, a 22 percent increase in the average net national carbon sink related to all land use, land use change, and forestry. This study positions alternative proteins as nature-positive solutions to reach environmental and climate goals while continuing to focus on agriculture and land stewardship.